Scientists say the tidal flooding seen around the Bay Area last week was the result of El Niño heating up the ocean's water, causing it to rise. But now, there's a new warning: another surge of warm water is on its way to the Bay Area, raising questions about how it will affect an already stressed marine ecosystem.
The notice came in a message from the normally stoic scientists at the National Weather Service: "Wow. Just wow. Check out the SST's (sea surface temperatures)." They are warning that a surge of 65- to 75-degree water is heading north from Southern California. It's being pushed by a Kelvin wave, an underwater swell that originates at the equator.
"They can take about two months to cross the Pacific Ocean before they move back towards the poles," said NWS meteorologist Rachel Kennedy. "They don't typically bring us any super hazardous impacts. I would just say the effects are maybe a bit stronger because we've got the much warmer water already and that's being transported northwards by the Kelvin wave. Which is why we're seeing a much more substantial burst of warm water offshore, basically."
It's that warmer water that is causing all the recent tidal flooding. But the question now is, what happens to the marine wildlife when the sea warms up all of a sudden?
"This winter we expect to see the strongest visible effects," said Dr. Grant Ballard, chief science officer at Point Blue, a scientific conservation group. "And then, that will impact next year's breeding season for most of the seabirds and seals and sea lions."
Ballard says animals can adapt to a changing environment, as long as the changes don't come too quickly.
"You know, depending on the species, they can absorb a few bad years," he said, "But mostly these are animals that have evolved to not experience two or three bad years in a row. So, in any case, we will expect to see some declines as the young, that would have been coming back in a few years, aren't coming back because they just didn't make it."
That may be what's happening now. Last month, thousands of small penguin-like birds called murres began washing up on Bay Area beaches. The International Bird Rescue in Fairfield has been scrambling to save as many of the starving creatures as possible.
"Some of them are definitely not making it," said veterinarian Dr. Rebecca Duerr. "But we do supportive care on the ones that we get, and we have a certain portion of them that will survive."
That was before the warm water surge arrived. They don't know what to expect when it does. The weather service says a Kelvin wave tends to be short-lived since it is moving through the area, but it is unknown how long the effects of the warmer water will be felt in the local ecosystem.
Some of the changes are just plain weird. James Emery, an underwater photographer from Monterey took pictures of an olive ridley sea turtle swimming near the town's wharf. The species normally lives in warm tropical waters.
"They do get sighting down south in California, but for them to show up here was crazy," Emery said.
He said the temperature of the water was 68 degrees, too warm for his thick wetsuit, and not even close to normal for the usually chilly kelp beds off Monterey.
"Normal diving conditions here are, like, 58 degrees to 60. But seeing 68 is really quite scary," Emery said. "Because we're seeing a lot of changes. It's not just the turtles. We've also seen, unfortunately, the kelp's health is declining. Kelp can't survive in these warm waters. So, it's quite scary what's happening and what these changes could mean."
Nature is a delicate web, but it can be amazingly resilient. Ballard says El Niño can also cause higher winds which tends to bring up colder water from the depths. So, there may be a counterbalance working here. The question is, which creatures will survive it, and which won't?
